Investment Research Disclaimer
CausalTrader publishes research, not investment advice. Read this page before you act on anything in our reports.
Not advice
Reports are written for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in any CausalTrader report is, and nothing should be construed as:
- investment, legal, accounting, or tax advice;
- a recommendation to buy, sell, hold, or otherwise transact in any security;
- a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security;
- a fiduciary engagement, suitability analysis, or know-your-customer review.
Mercurial AI Inc. is not a registered broker-dealer, investment adviser, or commodity trading adviser. We do not have a fiduciary duty to readers.
Methodology limitations
Our pipeline applies PCMCI+ (Runge et al. 2019) and VARLiNGAM (Hyvärinen et al.) to market data and news to identify candidate causal relationships. These methods rely on assumptions — including faithfulness, causal sufficiency in the chosen variable set, and stationarity within the analysis window — that may not fully hold for financial time series. Causal estimates are candidates, not certainties.
Memos are written by a frontier large language model on top of the statistical evidence. While we apply guardrails (cite-or-don't, bps-attribution table, no fabricated headlines), LLMs occasionally produce confident-sounding text that misreads the evidence. Treat every numerical claim as something to verify against the figures and the data sources.
Data sources
Market data is sourced from yfinance, Alpaca, and (where configured) Finnhub. News is sourced from public RSS feeds and commercial APIs. We do not control the accuracy or completeness of these sources and disclaim liability for any errors or omissions in them.
Past performance
Any historical or backtested figures shown in a report reflect hypothetical or past results. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing in securities, especially equities, involves substantial risk including loss of principal.
Forward-looking statements
Reports may include forward-looking statements about a company, industry, or market. These statements reflect our (or the LLM's) view at the time of publication and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual outcomes to differ materially. We undertake no duty to update them.
Conflicts of interest
At the time of publication of any report, neither Mercurial AI Inc. nor its principals hold a position in the security covered, unless explicitly disclosed within the report itself. We do not accept compensation from any company we cover and we do not accept sponsored research engagements.
Your responsibility
Investment decisions are yours alone. Before acting on anything in a report, consult your own licensed financial advisor and consider your individual circumstances, risk tolerance, and objectives.
Limitation of liability
To the fullest extent permitted by law, Mercurial AI Inc. and its principals will not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, or punitive damages arising from your use of, or reliance on, any CausalTrader report or any data contained therein. See the Terms of Service for the full liability framework.
Contact
Questions or concerns: dennis@mercurial-ai.com · Mercurial AI Inc., Chicago, IL, USA.